The Monthly Bearish Reversal remains at 1493 so no broader-term sell signal was accomplished yet.Resistance during June begins at 1632 and scales upward to 1732 followed by 1752. Support lies at 1574. We need to see a monly close back above 1675 to suggest a summer rally is likely. But the major resistance remains at 1800. The closing today at 1624 was impressive, but this is the third attempt to break to the downside with a sharp rally back. That tends to imply that the forth time is usually the charm. Remember that before a market blasts to the upside, it must get the majority out of the market throwing in the towel with the fake move to the downside first. That implies we may have to just penetrate last year’s low to accomplish that before setting up the sling-shot move to the upside. That is how the energy is created to swing sharply in the opposite direction. Likewise, every investigation of a crash tried to find the short player conspiracy and never has since 1907. The crash comes ONLY when the majority are long. Scare them, and now you have the biggest selling force ever and no bid. That produces the flash-type crash.
The Weekly Bullish Reversals stand at 1661 and 1687, so there was no buy signal generated yet that would imply sustainability either. The Daily Bullish Reversals were 1565, 1596, 1610, 1650, and 1659. We elected the first 1565 on Thursday closing at 1566.0 and the second today with the close at 1624.0. So far, the lowest weekly closing was last week while the previous week was the intraday low. The Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 1550.
Gold rally on the presumption there will be stimulus. Very nice, but nobody listened to Greenspan who was warning that rates may rise. With the elections looming, there is no incentive to do anything in Congress at all. Any action may be limited to the Fed. But we show big volatility after Labor Day starting in September into October. So hold on to your seats. This may be a very wild ride for this year’s elections. Sorry Congress! You should have got off your ass this time and stopped supporting the banks and agencies. They will be your undoing!